Thursday, July 23, 2009

Fantasy Football: Players I will not own

Ok.. The title may be self explanatory or not. I have put together a list of players that I will not own in any leagues and I will explain why. Enjoy!

QBs:

Drew Brees QB Saints: Do not get me wrong he is a tremendous player but he is rated too high this year. He is being ranked as the best QB. Is he worth taking in round one when you can get a much better valued QB like Aaron Rodgers in round 4? I do not think so.

Tony Romo QB Cowboys : The hype should be over. He just is not that good. TO is gone and Roy Williams looked mortal last year. Witten is still great but the running game will carry this offense, not Romo.

Eli Manning QB Giants: Who is he going to throw the ball to? He plays in a windy stadium and will feature the running game more this year without Plaxico Burress.

RBs:

Pierre Thomas RB Saints: Thomas is everyones fantasy doll. He finished very strong last season but it will be tough to keep Reggie Bush off the field. Drew Brees passing attack is also too good to ignore and with a terrible defense the Saints are not going to be able to run the ball late.

Jamal Lewis RB Browns: He had 1002 yards rushing last season but only 4 TDs. The Browns offense is not very good and they lost Kellen Winslow. Jerome Harrison is the speed back change-up that this league is going at RB. Lewis will not get 1000 yards again this year.

Willis McGahee RB Ravens: Who is the starting RB in Baltimore? This RB by committee group is too hard to decipher. McGahee does not have the upside of McClain and will not be on any of my teams. If you want a Raven RB go with McClain.

WRs:

Brandon Marshall WR Broncos: He is a stud but he has two things going against him. 1) Trouble seems to find him and he could get suspended anytime during the season. 2)He lost his pro-bowl QB. I will let other people take the risk on Marshall rather then use a high pick on a potential meltdown pick.

Antonio Bryant WR Bucs: He had a great year last year and was very explosive. My problem is he is being overvalued this year because of that great year and he lost Jeff Garcia. Who is the starting QB in Tampa this year? You have to examine that with WRs. Bryant will only be on my team if I already have my starting WRs and he is still sitting there. I do not see it happening.

Santana Moss WR Redskins: Fact-- Moss posted 8 games where got less than 5 fantasy points last season. He disappears in games all the time. He is a threat to have big games but can you handle the 2 point week for a 20 point week? I cannot.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Sleepers Part 2

Here is a look at the rest of the NFL teams for Mid-Late round-Sleepers:

Buffalo: Trent Edwards QB, He has too many weapons to pass up. TO, Evans, Lynch are all studs. Edwards just has to find the open guy and get them the ball. Take him late as a backup to your more established QB. His stats were not great last year but he has another year in the system and too many options to not be at least adequate.

Miami: Ted Ginn WR, I have a man crush on Ted Ginn. He is a play maker above all. He had just under 800 yards receiving last season and will have an even bigger year this year. You do not want to draft him as a starter but a spot starter against weak defenses will pay big dividends.

New England: Sammie Morris RB, Is anyone a sleeper on the Patriots? Yes. Sammie Morris is because somehow he gets lost in the shuffle. This guy can do it all. He is in a stable of RB where he is not the best player but he is very good at what he does. He had 7 rushing TDs last year and nearly 800 yards. He also catches the ball well and he just got Tom Brady back.. Draft him late and stash him for your RB bye week or when they get hurt.

New York Jets: Dustin Keller TE, Keller plays more like a WR than a TE. He is young and very talented. Coles is gone and they will need more production out of their passing game. Look for him to expand on his 48 receptions and over 500 yard receiving. TE is deep this year.

Dallas Cowboys: Felix Jones RB, The Cowboys are loaded at RB and Felix is the home run threat. He will have to fight for playing time but he will have no trouble making things happen when he gets his time. While healthy he had 8.9 YPC! He is a mid-round target.

New York Giants: Hakeem Nicks WR, Yes, he is a rookie but this guy is going to be a star. He is tall, rangy and will make plays. Eli needs a target and he will get this guy the ball. Nicks will be undervalued as a rookie and not a high draft pick but there is nothing not to like. A good team, QB, and not many other options.

Philadelphia: Lesean McCoy RB, Another rookie but when was the last time Westbrook stayed healthy all year? Buckhalter is gone and McCoy should get a lot of reps. This offense is very good. If you have Westbrook get McCoy and even if you do not have him get him before Westbrook's owner does.

Washington: Ladell Betts RB, Speaking of health.. CP takes himself out of the game pretty consistently and needs plenty of breathers. Betts had 1000 yard rushing in 2006 for the Redskins and will get a lot more playing time this year. His health is back and he is feeling great. Pick him up in deep leagues. He is the handcuff for Portis.

Denver: Knowshon Moreno RB, Denver's Oline is the best part of the team and may be one of the best in the league. Moreno should get the ball throughout the game and will also be Ortons dump off option. He is worthy of a high mid-round pick. He is the top pickup for any dynasty leagues this year.

Kansas City: Larry Johnson RB, Remember when he was the best fantasy RB option? His Oline has been improved and he has a QB to take some pressure off of him. He is a mid-round value that should go higher than he will. On a terrible team last year he had 800+ rushing yards. Look for him to be over 1000 this year.

Oakland: Johnnie Lee Higgins WR, The whole team is terrible but Higgins is a speedster with decent up-side. He will look to build on his 4 receiving TD effort from last year. Do not draft him before the very late rounds.

San Diego: Darren Sproles RB, Somehow this guy is a sleeper. Did no one see what he did last year? 5.4 YPC Over 600 Yards offense and 6 TDs. LT is overrated and needs lots of spells. Sproles will get a lot of playing time this year. Good mid-round pick up to back up your top flight RBs.

Arizona: Steve Breaston WR, Anquan Boldin is up in the air as to what he will do or where he is will be. Breaston is a legit up and comer in this league. He had 1000 yards receiving last year. He is in a big time offense. He is a great option for your 2-3 WR.

San Francisco: Josh Morgan WR, He showed flashes last year and if he can avoid the sophomore slump then he could be the number 1 option. You do not want him as a starter but he is solid depth that you can draft late and cut for a hot waiver wire guy if he falls on his face. Look for him in the last couple of rounds.

Seattle: Julius Jones RB, Everyone will gravitate towards the Seahawks WRs but Jones should benefit from the addition of TJ Houshmandzadeh. Jones averaged 4.4 YPC and had jut under 700 yards rushing. He will be a bigger factor on a team in the weak NFC West. Grab him in the middle rounds for some value.

St. Louis: Donnie Avery WR, The speedster was the first WR taken a year ago and looks like he is a gem. 674 yards receiving in his rookie campaign. Look for him in the early late rounds. He is STL 1st option in the passing game with only S. Jackson very close.


That wraps up sleepers. I will put up some more articles when I get the chance. Please comment and let me know what you think. Thanks.

Upcoming Fantasy Football Season

My first FF post is about Mid-Late-Round "Value" picks. These guys are not top rated picks but can still get your team over the hump. I will pick one guy from each team with a brief description of why he could be a good option. Let me know what you think. Here is part one:

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Baltimore: Le'Ron McClain RB, 900+ yards and 10 TDs last year from a defensive team that will look to run the ball again this year. He will be available and could be a good depth player behind players that are oft injured (Westbrook, LT, etc)

Cincinnati: Laveraneus Coles WR, 70 catches for 850 yds and 7 TDs last year. Carson Palmer is healthy and Ochocinco should have his stuff together. This offense should be way better. Coles is a late round steal.

Cleveland: Jerome Harrison RB, 7.2 Yards per Carry last year. Jamal Lewis is old and slow but still effective. He is going to need breaks. Harrison should be electric for the backfield when he comes in for spells.

Pittsburgh: Rashard Mendenhall RB, This former first round pick got sidelined with an injury last year. He is the handcuff to Willie Parker that you must have. Take him as a flier very late and you may strike gold.

Chicago: Devin Hester PR/KR/WR, Now that Sexy Rexy and Kyle Orton are gone and the Bears brought in Cutler expect Hester to have some legit numbers. He had 665 receiving yards last year. Expect 800+ and more than the 3 TDs from a year ago.

Detroit: Brandon Pettigrew TE, Do not draft him if you are in a ten team league. He is a first round pick from this years draft with lots of upside. Look for him if you forgot to draft a TE or play in a deep league. Detroit will be horrible again. Avoid players not named Calvin.

Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers QB, This guy is worth a high round pick but could slip in your draft. 4000 yards and 28 TDs last year. He is still learning and getting better. Look for him to have a great year.

Minnesota: Chester Taylor RB, Everyone knows about Adrian Peterson but what if he gets hurt or needs a break? Well.. Chester Taylor got 100 carries last year and averaged 4 YPC with 4 TDs. He is a late rounder worth giving a shot especially if you have AP on your team.

Houston: Matt Schaub QB, Andre Johnson is fantastic and someone has to get him the ball. In 11 games last year he had 3000+ yards and 15 TDs. Look for him to put it together with Johnson/Slaton.

Indianapolis: Anthony Gonzalez WR, Similar numbers to Devin Hester last year but a much better offense. Gonzalez had 4 TDs and over 600 yard last year. Look for a lot better numbers from this former 1st round pick.

Jacksonville: Torry Holt WR, New team but Torry Holt is not Marvin Harrison. He will not just disappear into the night. He could have a nice 700 yard 6 TD year.

Tennessee: Lendale White RB, Yes.. He is fat and slow but he is a TD poacher. He had 15 TDs last year! He is worth it alone for that. He is a mid-round value.

Atlanta: Jerious Norwood RB, 800 combined receiving and rushing yards with 6 TDs last year. He is very fast and is an excellent fastball to Turners breaking ball. Look for him to get involoved in the developing offense.

Carolina: Jake Delhomme QB, You know about the RBs and Steve Smith but Delhomme could be a late round steal. The O-line is good and the running game is excellent. He should be able to put together a pretty good year but because of his terrible postseason performance he is very undervalued right now.

New Orleans: Reggie Bush RB, I never would have thought Bush would be a sleeper as an NFL veteran but that is what he is. His teammate Thomas is being taken higher in leagues all over but I am not sure that is correct. Thomas is a fine option but the upside is with Bush. In the last 6 weeks of football last year Reggie put up these numbers in a standard ESPN league: 18, 18, 3, 24, 14, 22. I would take that out of my RB.

Tampa Bay: Kellen Winslow TE, Maybe he is not a super sleeper but the rest of the team is terrible. They are similar to Detroit. Look for Winslow to be the comfort food for whichever QB gets tossed out there.

Welcome

Hello,

Thank you for looking at my blog. I am going to try to post a few entries every week or two on topics I find interesting. I hope you will check back when I post something again. If you have any suggestions or comments please let me know. Thanks!

Dan Evans